The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates has many wondering if San Diego’s sky-high housing prices will finally come down, but analysts say the Fed’s move can only do so much in our supply-strained county.
“I get text messages, I get emails, I get calls,” said Loan Officer Mark Goldman, of C2 Financial.
“Not only do I get them for my private residence, but I also get calls because my company has the name realty in it.”
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U.S. mortgage rates approached 5% on Friday, the highest daily average in more than four years, as war-worsened inflation fears spooked financial markets and the Federal Reserve ended a two-year emergency program that boosted demand for bonds containing home loans.
The average locked rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage eligible to be backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – the most common form of home financing – rose to 4.87% on Friday, the highest since late 2018, after rising a third of a percentage point in a week, according to data from Optimal Blue. The average 30-year jumbo rate increased to 4.4%, the highest since 2019.
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I recently spoke with Kathleen Howley and Forbes about the expectation that rates may remain low, as we have seen over the past year.
Just recently the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City canceled their Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium due to the rising spread of the delta-variant. How does this point to low rates?
Well, when shutdowns across the country began occurring last year the Fed cut rates and they have remained low throughout this year as well. In January, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 2.65%, an all-time low according to data from Freddie Mac. The recent cancellation of this in-person event may signal to investors that the pandemic is not truly over. Despite the vaccine rollout cases continue to increase in many places across the country.
“The Fed has been reassuring markets since last year that they will keep buying bonds as long as there’s a concern that the pandemic is going to slow the economy,” said Mark Goldman, a mortgage broker with C2 Financial Corp. in San Diego. “Now, we’re hearing every day that hospitals are full, and that’s not a sign that the economy is about to take off.”
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In this aggressive seller’s market, many successful bidders are waiving appraisal contingencies. Agents must be equipped to address their buyer-clients’ concerns about paying more than the appraised value for a property.
An appraised value less than the contract price will increase the loan to value. This can require additional cash down payment and/or mortgage insurance.
Should a buyer pay more than appraised value? Tough question. But, in this market, the answer is often “yes”. There are many competing buyers willing to waive appraisal contingencies. However, home prices are moving up at a brisk pace. The appreciation in value will likely help home values catch up to price in a year or so.
The strongest buyers prevail – Successful bidders for homes are making cash offers with no contingencies for the appraised value. Move up buyers are confronted with the challenge to buy a new home before selling their departure residence. One concern is to sell first and not get a new home in time for the move. Such buyers may need to qualify for their purchase while carrying their departure residence because sellers may not consider a contingency for the sale of the departure residence.
Do bidding wars create a bubble in prices? I do not believe that the current trend to higher prices will create a bubble that will burst because the buyers are purchasing for their use, not speculation. Price bubbles in stocks, tulips, and real estate are the result of investors simply speculating that some fool will be willing to pay more for an asset in the near term. I have not observed investors buying homes on speculation to flip at a higher price.
Many sectors of the market have prospered during Covid. As we return to normalcy, the economy will improve even more. So, the upward pressure on home pricing will continue. Higher interest rates in the next 6-12 months may moderate the rate of appreciation unless inflation becomes an additional influence to even greater price increases.
Millennials are entering the home market. We will see more millennials become home buyers in the next few years created even stronger demand for the limited housing supply in San Diego.
Conclusion – This is a tough market for home buyers with prices rising rapidly and fierce completion for limited inventory. I expect pricing to continue upward in the next year. However, I believe the rate of appreciation will slow later this year as the fear of Covid subsides and more home sellers are willing to list their property.
I hope 2021 has been good to all of you so far. The San Diego real estate market has remained strong, but we are already starting to see some changes from last year. San Diego is one of the hottest markets in the nation. We are behind only Phoenix and Seattle for the largest increase in prices during this year. We entered the year with the same low interest rates we continuously saw throughout last year and prices were still high due to strong buyer competition and very limited inventory. Interest rates started to rise slowly in January. March saw rates increase even faster. We are seeing mortgage interest rates close to 3%, compared to 2.5% on New Year’s. I expect rates to continue upward to about 3.5% by the end of the year.
At the beginning of the year, the median home price was $640,000. That is a 9.4% increase in the last 12 months. This was due mostly to the strong competition for homes and the low inventory we experienced all year. Many potential sellers have waited to sell because of the pandemic, but now that rates are increasing it may be better to sell sooner rather than later.
I do not anticipate price appreciation to slow this year. Although rates are rising, fewer pandemic restrictions, vaccinations, commercial openings and the Stimulus Package will all support strong growth for the balance of 2021. The Fed has committed to try to keep inflation low. But, real estate is always a great asset class in inflationary times. The improving economy will overpower the impact of higher interest rates on real estate prices.
What does this mean for you?
Buyers:
Sellers:
Let me know when I can help.
10News recently reported about Zillow’s Zestimate program being used to purchase homes in San Diego.
Sellers can check if their homes qualify for an all-cash offer from Zillow and can typically expect this process to be faster than a typical transaction. While this may be a good opportunity for sellers who are looking to quickly sell their home, I don’t think it fits everyone.
Those who want to make sure they can get a top offer should go the more typical route and work with an agent that can market their home properly. I spoke with 10News about the competition we are seeing that is helping to drive up prices.
“Buyers are in tears because they can’t get an offer accepted. There’s a shortage of inventory that we haven’t seen before. It’s just very difficult for someone who is trying to buy a home.”
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I spoke with The San Diego Union-Tribune recently about the new record high prices we have seen in San Diego. This year there are a lot less homes on the market, meaning a lot more competition for buyers and therefore higher home prices. Many sellers are receiving multiple offers, some even over asking price and selling in a few days.
The Union-Tribune reports “the county has seen prices rise more than 8 percent since the pandemic took effect in March” which is something we have seen across major cities in the country. Low interest rates have incentivized many to buy now, so more buyers have entered the market. I believe rates will stay like this for some time, so it’s a good time to buy for those who can.
For more information, read the full article here.
Over the last few months we have continued to see record-low rates. The average 30 year fixed rate is currently 3.010% which is good news for buyers looking to purchase a home. If you have thought about taking advantage of low rates to refinance, you may want to act fast due to the 0.50% fee* that will be imposed on most refinances. This news comes from Fannie and Freddie and will be in effect for conforming loans delivered after December 1, 2020. This is most likely a response to the large amount of refinances that have occurred due to the low rates. Many conforming lenders are already pricing this fee into their loan locks.
In San Diego we continue to see a low inventory of available homes, meaning more competition for buyers. Inventory for detached homes is 52% lower compared to last year; and attached is 30.2% lower. Low inventory has been a problem for some time now, and it continues to drive up prices. This is good news for sellers who can expect to receive multiple offers on their home and sell it quickly. On average, marketing times are down to 24 and 25 days for detached and attached homes respectively, but we have all seen those homes that sell in a matter of days. If you’re working with buyers, make sure they are prepared to act fast. Get your buyers pre-approved for their financing. Be aware that many lenders have slow turn times these days due to very high refinance volume. Some lenders are running two weeks for underwriting purchases. After loan approval, it can take 10 days to clear conditions for loan documents. There are still lenders who can close purchases in 3 weeks. Get realistic turn times from your lender to meet contingency periods.
Good news on non-conforming loans. The jumbo lenders are returning to the market with competitive pricing. However, underwriting guidelines are still strict with requirements for higher credit scores, lower debt-to-income ratios and higher reserve requirements. Also, self-employed borrowers are scrutinized with more conservative underwriting of income. Also, bank statement loans for self-employed borrowers and debt service coverage loans for investment properties are slowly returning to the market. Rates are higher for these Non-QM loans, but they are coming back. Non-QM loans can also be useful for borrowers with credit events.
The Federal Reserve has announced a more aggressive policy to allow higher inflation before raising their overnight discount rate. According to the Fed, their long-term strategy is to keep rates low for the upcoming years. This is an effort to boost spending. However, long term lenders who make 15 and 30 year fixed rate loans may raise rates in anticipation of inflation. In my opinion, this indicates that mortgage interest rates are more likely to go up from here than down.
Let me know when I can help.
*The fee will apply to most refinances, with some exemptions being:
Recently rates dropped to below 3%, which is a new low we have not seen for many years. In the midst of a pandemic this can be great news for many people who are looking to buy a home. Here in San Diego low rates can definitely help to make buying a home more affordable, but the amount of change it will make in the overall market may not be that much.
Home prices in San Diego have continued to rise over the past few years, and even now during the pandemic. This is a result of a continued low inventory of available homes over many years. At the beginning of the year there was already a low inventory, but once the state started to close down many sellers pulled their homes out of the market, understandably so. The homes that were still left started selling faster than expected and competition between buyers increased. If you’re thinking of buying be prepared to face some competition and to act fast when you find a home you want.
With unemployment rates still high, this means many people are simply not in the place to buy a home at all. Sadly, San Diego is already a city that can be difficult to afford. Many of the residents that lost their jobs would already have had a hard time affording a home. So while the low rates can help some people to afford a home, they won’t make a big difference in the overall affordability of owning a home in San Diego. Home prices will likely stay constant or possibly rise with continued competition within buyers.
Now, if you were able to maintain your job during this time and are contemplating buying a home, then now may be a great time for you. Requirements are getting tougher for loans, but it is still possible to get a low rate during this time. Let’s discuss your options today. Click here to get started.
For the article this post is based on, click here.
The Jumbo Mortgage market took a hard hit because of Covid, but recently many lenders have provided information about their products coming back. Rates are still higher than conforming loans, but we will continue to monitor them.
Many home buyers had to put their plans on hold, but with the market slowly coming back to normal, now may be the time to begin their home search again. Competition is still an issue in the market, so getting pre-approved is important. If you are looking to buy a home or are an agent working with buyers, let me know when I can help.